Economists speaking at the International Builders Show in Las Vegas today expect that housing will continue its climb to higher ground in 2014. NAHB's Chief Economist David Crowe said, "My single family forecast for 2014 is pretty aggressive: 822,000 starts, which is 200,000 more than 2013." He observed that five key points mark the turnaround: "Consumers are back, pent-up demand is emerging, there is a growing need for new construction, distressed sales are diminishing and builders see it."

NAHB notes that consumer confidence has returned to pre-recession levels and household balance sheets are on the mend. Also, year-over-year household formations are increasing, and average 620,000, versus 500,000 during the downturn. What's more, new home sales average 8.7 percent of total home sales — just half of the historical average of 16.1 percent. And the percentage of mortgages seriously delinquent has fallen; the decline has been larger in markets with the highest rates.

NAHB expects 1.15 million housing starts this year, with single family production up 32 percent to 822,000 starts. Crowe also expects single family production to grow an additional 41 percent to 1.16 million units next year. And single family home sales are projected to increase by 35.9 percent, to 584,000. By the end of the year, he predicts housing starts will be 71 percent of 'normal' and 93 percent of 'normal' by the end of 2015.